🔗 Share this article

Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position and Settled Debates

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document and Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.