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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."